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Windows 10 closes in on Microsoft’s 1 billion device goal
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At the Build developers' conference in San Francisco earlier this month, Microsoft's Terry Myerson declared that the company's goal was to reach the billion-device milestone "within two to three years after launch."
Even if only half of those 300 million new PCs each year are running Windows 10, that's nearly half a billion after three years. Given Microsoft's willingness to deal on the cost of Windows 10 and its ability to end sales of Windows 7 PCs, the actual percentage of new devices running the new OS will probably be much higher.
But the market for smartphones is so big--roughly 1.8 billion per year--that even a small share represents a lot of units. In the most recent quarter, Microsoft sold 8.6 million phones worldwide. That should be a worst-case quarter, and even a weak response to Windows 10 coupled with new flagship devices would put total worldwide sales at between 50 million and 150 million Windows 10 phones per year.
After all that, even with relatively pessimistic assumptions, there are roughly a billion Windows 10 devices in use in mid-2018. If Microsoft can keep Windows 10 Mobile device sales at 10 percent of the worldwide market or more and help its OEM partners sell more Windows 10 PCs and tablets, that total increases by hundreds of millions more.
"Our goal is that within two to three years of Windows 10's release there will be one billion devices running Windows 10," Terry Myerson said during the keynote address opening Microsoft's Build developer conference.
Later in the keynote, Myerson kept returning to the goal as motivation for developers to create Windows apps, and how they could potentially monetize their work. "With Windows 10, there will be one billion devices ready to run your applications," Myerson said.
Gillen went on to do a back-of-the-envelope calculation that assumed 300 million PCs sold each year, with half of them to consumers, for a total of 300 million over two years, 450 million over three. "Even if no devices are upgraded to Windows 10, that's at least 300 million right there," Gillen said. Then he added a quarter of the 1.5 billion existing Windows PCs -- consumers accounting for half of the 1.5 billion, then half of the resulting 750 million as likely to upgrade -- for another 375 million.
"Windows 10 is a huge step forward," said Jan Dawson, chief analyst with Jackdaw Research. "A very large proportion of the Windows base will be on Windows 10, and I don't doubt that it can make the goal. But the whole billion is fragmented across all these different devices, PCs, tablets, phones. Yet phones are where are all the developers want to be. That's where people are spending money and time, on smartphone apps."
Dawson's point was that while there may be a billion Windows 10 devices in two or three years, the vast bulk of them would be PCs, not mobile devices that developers are most interested in, where apps actually sell.
With enterprise adoption of Windows 10 expected to be lukewarm for the first few years after its release, Microsoft's goal will rely on consumer PCs, both bought new and upgraded, and improved sales of mobile devices.
To meet its goal of putting Windows 10 on a billion devices within three years, Microsoft will have to turn every personal computer now running Windows 7 onto the new OS, then find even more to migrate, calculations from recent statistics show.
Microsoft staked out the ambitious plan last week at its Build developers conference. "Our goal is that within two to three years of Windows 10's release there will be one billion devices running Windows 10," said Terry Myerson, the chief of the firm's operating system group.
With the 1.5 billion as a total, calculations showed that Windows 7 is on approximately 961 million machines, shy of the goal. Windows XP and Windows 8/8.1 tallied 262 million and 257 million, respectively. Meanwhile, Vista's share is about 32 million.
We all adjust goals as we get down to the hard work of meeting them. In this case, walking back the "one billion devices" benchmark actually shows maturity in realizing the initial goal was over ambitious. Redefining the goal is better than plowing down a path despite knowing you will never succeed.
Eventually Windows 10 will reach one billion devices - just not in the first three years. I believe Windows 10 will be close, within a couple hundred million units, within the next two years. This especially likely as Windows 10 is a cross platform operating system now found on PCs, tablets, mobile handsets, Xbox One, HoloLens, IoT devices and Surface Hubs.
I mean they have added over 350 million devices to the Windows 10 install base in the first year right? If you do the math and extrapolate that out for two more years then by July 2018, the original goal date, they should exceed their goal by at least 50 million devices, right?
Microsoft believes its new Windows 10 operating system will find its way onto 1 billion PCs, tablets, phones, Xbox gaming consoles and emerging device form factors like its HoloLens by fiscal year 2018, which begins in just over two years. Terry Myerson, executive vice president for Microsoft's Windows group, made the bold prediction in part of the opening keynote presentation at the annual Build conference which kicked off today in San Francisco.
Windows 10 is now powering over 1 billion monthly active devices, the Windows maker announced today. A little over a month ago, the company's Italian website was showing this milestone, however, the company continued to insist its "official" number was 900 million monthly active devices. This changes today as Microsoft is officially celebrating hitting the 1 billion mark.
This figure of 1 billion Windows 10 devices includes desktops, laptops, HoloLens, and Xbox One consoles. Microsoft had planned to hit its goal of 1 billion devices in less than 3 years of introducing the new operating system. It took almost 5 years, but the company is finally here... with a little bit of help from Windows 7, which hit its end of support deadline only two months back, pushing businesses to Windows 10.
The Azure Internet of Things (IoT) is a collection of Microsoft-managed cloud services that connect, monitor, and control billions of IoT assets. In simpler terms, an IoT solution is made up of one or more IoT devices that communicate with one or more back-end services hosted in the cloud.
Microsoft initially aimed to have Windows 10 installed on over one billion devices within three years of its release;[19] that goal was ultimately reached almost five years after release on March 16, 2020,[22] and is by now most used version in virtually all countries. By January 2018, Windows 10 surpassed Windows 7 as the most popular version of Windows worldwide.[23] As of August 2022[update], Windows 10 is estimated to have a 72% share of Windows PCs,[23] still 6.2 the share of its successor Windows 11 (and 6.0 of Windows 7). The share has been declining from a January 2022 peak of 82%,[24] since Windows 11, which is now the second most popular Windows version in many countries. Windows 10 has a 58% share of all PCs (the rest being other Windows editions and other operating systems such as macOS and Linux), and a 22% share of all devices (including mobile, tablet and console)[25] are running Windows 10. On June 24, 2021, Microsoft announced Windows 10's successor, Windows 11, which was released on October 5, 2021.[26]
At the Build Conference in April 2014, Microsoft's Terry Myerson unveiled an updated version of Windows 8.1 (build 9697) that added the ability to run Windows Store apps inside desktop windows and a more traditional Start menu in place of the Start screen seen in Windows 8. The new Start menu takes after Windows 7's design by using only a portion of the screen and including a Windows 7-style application listing in the first column. The second column displays Windows 8-style app tiles. Myerson said that these changes would occur in a future update, but did not elaborate.[33][34] Microsoft also unveiled the concept of a "universal Windows app", allowing Windows Store apps created for Windows 8.1 to be ported to Windows Phone 8.1 and Xbox One while sharing a common codebase, with an interface designed for different device form factors, and allowing user data and licenses for an app to be shared between multiple platforms. Windows Phone 8.1 would share nearly 90% of the common Windows Runtime APIs with Windows 8.1 on PCs.[33][35][36][37]
Up to August 2016, Windows 10 usage was increasing, with it then plateauing,[297] while eventually in 2018, it became more popular than Windows 7[298][299] (though Windows 7 was still more used in some countries in Asia and Africa in 2019). As of March 2020[update], the operating system is running on over a billion devices, reaching the goal set by Microsoft two years after the initial deadline.[22]
Connect, monitor, and manage billions of edge devices on a fully managed application platform or build more flexible solutions using robust platform services. The open approach from Azure places ease of development and integration at the forefront.
The strategy could help though, if Microsoft through other means makes the platform an attractive target. The primary way to do this of course is to have lots of users. VP Terry Myerson told us that Microsoft is aiming for 1 billion devices running Windows 10 within 2-3 years. If it gets there, the platform will form a strong app market and that in turn will attract developers, some of whom will be glad to be able to port their existing code. 2ff7e9595c
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